Thursday, March 8, 2012

Arguments that annoy me, part II: Resource Wars.

It's not so much that resource wars are inconceivable.  Sure, it's possible that if resources got really scarce, and there were major moves towards protectionism and nationalism around the world, countries might get so focused on securing their own resources that they might fight each other.  Maybe.  Possibly.  People usually don't provide examples for this argument, so it should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

The incoherent argument is the one that says recessions will lead to resource wars.  I probably hear this impact argument three to four times a tournament, maybe more.

Remember folks - recessions are slowdowns in economic activity.  They are the result of businesses being unable to sell their products, cutting production, and firing people.  They are a product of people wanting fewer natural resources.


See that 2009 drop?  That's the recession.  People might have been inclined to fight over oil during the boom, but they sure as hell wouldn't have fought during the bust.   In fact, people are probably a lot less likely to engage in resource wars during a recession.  They might engage in nationalistic, jingoistic, patriotic wars, which tend to distract people when they would otherwise be angry at their leaders about the economy.  But that's not the internal link people are going for.

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